Windsor-Essex Market Report
2023 First Quarter Update
An overview of historical transaction data in Windsor & Essex County
In the first quarter of 2023, Windsor & Essex County, like other real estate markets across the country, saw a significant decline in sales activity and average prices. Overall resale units sold are down 42% from a year ago while the median sale price is down 23.2%. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), through its various real estate boards and provincial associations, compiles transaction data for each of its major markets, with the CREA Stats Centre reporting sales data going as far back as 1980. While historical stats should never be the sole indicator of what’s to come, they are helpful to review and consider as part of the broader context. In this first quarter update, we'll outline transaction trends for each of the communities comprising Windsor and surrounding Essex County, as well as overall performance by property type.
Windsor & Essex County: Regional Overview
Windsor, the start of the Quebec City-Windsor population corridor, is the seventh largest city in Ontario and the 15th largest metropolitan area in Canada. Directly across the river from Windsor is the American city of Detroit, with the two cities forming the largest and busiest trans-border urban area in North America. Windsor-Detroit experiences significant cross-border travel and tourism, as well as commerce, with the area well known for being the automotive capital of North America. Directly south of Lake St. Clair and 30 minutes north of the banks of Lake Erie, Windsor locals are a short drive from miles of beautiful waterfront and surrounding nature. However, despite close proximity to a major American city and a large economy of its own, homes in Windsor are significantly more affordable than other cities in Southern Ontario, with an average price to end the year of around $500K.
45 minutes south-east of Windsor lies the town of Leamington and Point Pelee National Park, the southernmost point in mainland Canada. From there, driving up the peninsula along the shores of Lake Erie you will find the picturesque towns of Kingsville and Amherstburg, along with some of the most fertile and tropical landscapes in our country. For anyone who has spent time in Windsor and surrounding Essex County, they will be familiar with greenhouses and fruit stands, breathtaking escarpment views along the lakefront, and a growing number of wineries. The area is experiencing significant growth in recent years, with prominent new investment into the region from Canadian cannabis producers, the broader agricultural sector, as well as residential home builders. To the north and running along Lake St. Clair, the growing sub-market of Lakeshore rounds out the region, with the combined Windsor-Essex area recording 6% growth in population between 2016 and 2021.
Windsor & Essex County: Total Market Overview
Across all communities included in Windsor & Essex County, the median sale price observed in the first quarter of 2023 was $484K, up 3.0% from the last quarter of 2022 but down 23.2% compared to Q1-2022. A quick note on median versus average values. Median sale price, which reports the sale price of the middle-priced property in a group, is a more reliable metric than average sale price because it removes outlier transactions (i.e. properties that have sold for either a lot of money or have sold for next to nothing). Outlier transactions skew the average from what it really should be, which is the price of the average, or mid-priced home, in a particular community.
If the average price for a market is significantly higher than its median, it means that the market has a growing number of luxury properties being sold. Across the entire Windsor-Essex board, the average price in Q1-2023 was 8.5% higher than its median value, whereas Kingsville, the nearby lakefront town with a growing number of luxury developments, had an average sale price that was 14.7% higher than its median. Despite homes in Windsor-Essex losing close to a quarter of their market value compared to a year prior, in the broader context, the region has outperformed the province and most markets in Southern Ontario over the past 5 years, outperforming other corridor cities like Brantford, Hamilton-Burlington, and the GTA. This can be widely attributed to the relative affordability of Windsor homes when compared to homes in these nearby markets. For the preceding 20 years, Windsor prices have more or less lagged behind the growth experienced in these markets, and alongside the Greater London Area, this corner of southwestern Ontario is playing some catch-up. Compared to its trailing 5-year average for median sale price, homes in Windsor-Essex ended the first quarter of 2023 up 22%. To compare Windsor’s performance against other major markets in the province, check out our article on Top Markets in Ontario here.
Part of what drove Windsor’s phenomenal price growth during the pandemic was its low inventory, or housing supply available for buyers. A year prior, Windsor-Essex had only 0.7 months of inventory, which meant that listed homes were selling in just under three weeks. Without new homes hitting the market, Windsor inventory would have disappeared in less than a month. When inventory levels are this low, prices have to rise on account of too many buyers bidding on too few properties. This leads to bidding wars and runaway prices, explaining part of why Windsor prices are double what they were 5 years ago. Over the trailing 5 years, Windsor-Essex has been a tight sellers’ market, with an average of only one and a half months of resale inventory.
Throughout 2022, multiple interest rate hikes resulted in a temporary cooling of the market, with Windsor-Essex ending the year with 3.5 months of available inventory, double the average supply recorded since 2017. During the first quarter of 2023, inventory levels fell back down to 2.1 months while median days on market (DOM) also fell from 17 days to 14 days. While still a more favourable buyers’ market than what Windsor realtors have been used to over the past five years, activity during the first quarter of 2023 indicates that buyers are eager to get back into the market (price up from last quarter with inventory levels and average selling time both falling).
Due to its low population density relative to the rest of Southern Ontario, close to 90% of properties in Windsor-Essex are detached homes. Detached homes, as expected, are more expensive than the apartments and semi-detached segment, with median sale prices to end the first quarter of $500K and $360K respectively. Over the past 5 years, detached homes in Windsor-Essex have seen prices grow at a slightly faster pace than the apartment segment, with both property types ending the first quarter close to double what they were selling for five years ago. Through Q1-2023, there is a lower supply of detached homes in Windsor-Essex which is resulting in faster selling times when compared to the apartment segment.
Community Overview
Windsor-Lasalle-Tecumseh
The city of Windsor is comprised of three main regions: Windsor proper, Lasalle, and Tecumseh. Windsor proper, which comprises the majority of neighbourhoods and its downtown core, has a population of 230K. Running south down the Detroit river is the community of Lasalle, with a population of just over 30K. The riverfront community is less than 20 minutes from downtown Windsor, with its own residential core alongside an abundance of green space, river tributaries, and golf courses. In the opposite direction is the town of Tecumseh, located adjacent to Windsor’s west end at the mouth of Lake St. Clair. These three sub-regions, most notably Windsor proper, each have multiple neighbourhoods within them, and in total account for two-thirds of resale activity in Windsor & Essex County. Given the wide-variety of neighbourhoods, it’s important to speak with a realtor knowledgeable in your preferred location and property type in order to get a better sense of what – and where – you may be able to afford.
To end the first quarter of 2023, Windsor-Lasalle-Tecumseh reported a median sale price of $453K, down 23.2% on the year but up 21.4% when compared to the trailing 5-year average. At 2022 year-end and continuing through the first quarter of 2023, resale inventory levels in Windsor-Lasalle-Tecumseh are lower than anywhere else in Essex County, with just under 2 months of supply. Inventory levels notably declined from the third quarter but are currently much healthier than where they were one year prior, when they were at half a month of supply. Across all property types, homes are selling in just under two weeks, 2 days quicker than activity in final quarter of 2022 but still up 3 days from the trailing 5-year average.
Community Overview
Lakeshore & Area
The municipality of Lakeshore, while just over 10% of current resale activity, is the most expensive market in Windsor-Essex, ending the first quarter with a median sale price of $662K. With a population of just over 40K, the Lakeshore sub-market has seen its population grow at close to twice the pace of the Windsor-Essex region. Compared to a year ago, median prices are down 17.6%, although inventory levels are back under 3 months after ending 2022 with over five and a half months of supply. When compared to the trailing 5-year average for median sale price, properties in Lakeshore are up 24.2%.
Community Overview
Amherstburg
At the end of Q1-2023, Amherstburg reported a median sale price of $571K, making it the second-most expensive sub-market in Windsor-Essex. Prices are down 23.4% year-over-year, although largely unchanged when compared to the final quarter of 2022. Months of inventory has been cut in half during the first quarter, although still up close to a month when compared to the trailing 5-year average. As expected from the sudden decrease in supply, properties in Amherstburg are now selling faster, with a median listing period of 14 days, down significantly from the Q4-2022 median of 27 days.
Community Overview
Kingsville & Essex
Kingsville & Essex finished the first quarter with a median sale price of $487K, down 20.9% when compared to the same quarter one year ago. When compared to its trailing 5-year average, the median price is up 16.8%, although price growth has been concentrated in the Kingsville area.
A year ago, inventory levels in Kingsville & Essex were much lower. At the end of Q1-2023, housing supply is close to triple where it was a year prior, sitting now at 2.9 months but down from 7 months to end 2022. Homes in this area are selling in around 25 days, up 10 days from what locals have been used to over the last 5 years.
Community Overview:
Leamington
Similar to neighbouring Kingsville, the average home in Leamington is relatively affordable, with a median sale price for Q1-2023 of $470K. Compared to the final quarter of 2022, which recorded a median sale price of $392K, it is important to note that the small sample size of transactions in this sub-market can result in drastic price swings quarter to quarter. Prices are down 15.0% year-over-year but up 31.7% when compared to the trailing 5-year weighted average.
After inventory levels steadily grew throughout 2022, the first quarter of 2023 saw a decline from 5.6 months of supply at year-end to 4.3 months. Despite the decline in supply, these inventory levels are still double the trailing 5-year average for the Leamington area. When compared to Windsor-Essex as a whole, homes in Leamington are taking longer to sell, with a median listing period of 20 days, up 5 days from its trailing 5-year average.
Summary
The Windsor & Essex County report will be updated on a quarterly basis. Every market is different, but understanding available inventory levels alongside recent price and market trends can help prospective buyers and sellers make more informed decisions. A summary of all Windsor markets as of Q1-2023 is presented above and you can subscribe to quarterly updates of the Windsor Market Report report by completing the contact form below.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article. As you contemplate the next steps in your real estate journey, there are a variety of helpful online resources you can leverage, such as realtor.ca, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and historical sales data and market insights from leading real estate websites like Zolo, Royal LePage, HouseSigma, and Wahi.
