London Market Report
2024 Third Quarter Update
London prices flat year-over-year with inventory increasing during the second and third quarters; supply levels for buyers are now more than double the trailing 5-year average
Over the last two years, the Greater London Area, like other real estate markets across the country, saw a significant decline in sales activity. Resale units sold in 2022 was down 29% when compared to the record year in 2021 before falling another 13% in 2023. Muted market activity has continued in 2024, with overall sales up only 2% compared to the first nine months of 2023. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), through its various real estate boards and provincial associations, compiles transaction data for each of its major markets, with the CREA Stats Centre reporting sales data going as far back as 1980. While historical stats should never be the sole indicator of what’s to come, they are helpful to review and consider as part of the broader context. In this article, we'll outline latest transaction highlights for each of the communities comprising the London Area as well as overall performance by property type.
Greater London Area: Regional Overview
London, the seat of Middlesex County, is the largest city in southwestern Ontario and the 11th largest metropolitan area in Canada. With close proximity to the GTA, Michigan and New York state borders, and multiple Great Lakes, the region is well-poised for future growth. It is the economic hub of southwestern Ontario, with major companies, hospitals, and higher education based in the city. For anyone familiar with London, the signs of new housing development are everywhere, with significant urban sprawl occurring throughout north and west London.
30 minutes south of London is St. Thomas, the seat of Elgin County. Ten minutes beyond St. Thomas, Port Stanley and other beach towns along Lake Erie offer recreational getaways for London locals. A similar drive west of the city are the towns of Komoka-Kilworth and Strathroy-Caradoc, with a short drive further to reach the shores of Lake Huron. East of London, in Oxford County, are the growing towns of Woodstock, Ingersoll, Tillsonburg, and Norwich. With both the 401 and 402 highways running along the southern border of London, surrounding Middlesex County and these neighbouring communities are easily accessible. For this reason, they can be considered part of the Greater London Area.
Greater London Area: Total Market Overview
Across all communities included in the GLA, the median sale price in the third quarter was $608K, down slightly from the prior quarter as well as year-over-year. A quick note on median versus average values: median sale price, which reports the sale price of the middle-priced property in a group, is a more reliable metric than average sale price because it removes outlier transactions (i.e. properties that have sold for either a lot of money or have sold for next to nothing). Outlier transactions skew the average from what it really should be, which is the price of the average, or mid-priced home, in a particular community. The same concept extends to selling times, with London's average days on market currently at 35 days while the median listing is selling around 24 days in the third quarter.
Despite minimal price growth over the past two years, London prices have experienced significant growth since 2018, outperforming neighbouring markets like Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, and the GTA. This can be widely attributed to the relative affordability of London homes when compared to similar ones in these nearby markets. For the preceding 20 years, London prices have more or less lagged behind the growth experienced in these markets, and it appears that recently the Forest City has been playing catch-up. Compared to the average price recorded in Q1-2019, London homes are now up 55%, which represents an annual growth rate of 9.2%. To compare London’s performance against other major markets in the province, check out our article on Top Markets in Ontario here.
Part of what drove London’s staggering price growth during the pandemic was its shortage of housing supply available for buyers. To end the 2021 year, the Greater London Area had only 0.4 months of inventory, meaning that listed homes were selling in under two weeks on average. Without new homes hitting the market, London inventory would have disappeared in less than a month. When inventory levels are this low, prices have to rise on account of too many buyers bidding on too few properties. This leads to bidding wars and runaway prices which were consistent themes during the market peak in early 2022. Over the trailing 5 years, the GLA has been a tight sellers’ market, with 2 months of resale inventory.
Beginning in March 2022 and extending into 2023, multiple interest rate hikes resulted in a market slowdown, with London ending the year with 4.4 months of available inventory, more than double the historical supply recorded since 2018. After inventory fell during the first quarter, supply notably has increased in each of the last two quarters to now sit at 5 months. As a result, homes are taking longer to sell at 24 days, up from a median 17 days during last summer. In London and across the province, buyers have not re-entered the market as expected.
Most properties in the Greater London Area, about 3 out of 4, are detached homes. Detached homes in London, as expected, are more expensive than apartments and semi-detached properties, with median sale prices to end the year of $647K and $478K respectively. Over the past 5 years, detached homes in Greater London have seen prices grow at a slightly slower pace than the apartment segment, which has nearly doubled in value since the first quarter of 2019. During the third quarter, detached homes are selling 7 days faster than the apartment segment, with both property types taking longer to sell than they were a year ago.
Community Overview
London North, London South, and London East
You’re probably wondering why London West is missing from the title. I certainly was when I began reviewing data reported by the London and St. Thomas board to CREA. It is not a typo or omission. The local real estate board has simply divided London into three main regions, large in part due to the Thames River that winds its way through the city and forks near the downtown core. London East is bounded by the Thames River to the north, south, and to the west, where the river runs through Western University and alongside Richmond Street, the main thoroughfare to downtown London. London South, similarly, is the portion of the city that is south of the Thames River and its downtown fork. Finally, there is London North, which is bounded to the south and east by the fork of the Thames. These three boroughs each have multiple neighbourhoods within them, and in total account for close to 60% of resale activity in Greater London.
Compared to a year ago, London proper is featuring more buyer-friendly market conditions, with both inventory and selling times up year-over-year across all three boroughs.
Despite similar trends for inventory and median days on market, London proper features drastically different house prices across the city. London North leads the way, with a median sale price in the third quarter of $698K, down 1.6% year-over-year. This area is characterized by high-growth, newer developments such as those in Masonville and Sunningdale as well as the big-box retail and new homes surrounding Fanshawe & Hyde Park. London East, historically and to this day, is the most affordable of the three boroughs, with a Q3-2024 median sale price of $498K. This area has the most diverse housing mix in the city, which includes historic luxury properties along the Thames River downtown, an array of apartments and multi-units in the downtown core, and smaller, more affordable detached homes east of Adelaide Street. Given this wide-variety, it’s important to speak with a realtor knowledgeable in your preferred location and property type in order to get a better sense of what – and where – you may be able to afford. Despite inventory growing in recent quarters, London East continues to feature the lowest supply of resale homes across London proper. Finally, London South ended the year with a median sale price of $610K, down slightly year-over-year. Prominent neighbourhoods in South London include Wortley Village, Byron and Springbank Park, and White Oaks.
Community Overview
St. Thomas and Elgin County
St. Thomas and surrounding Elgin County is a short drive south of London. Its population of 50K is mostly based in St. Thomas, with just under 10K residents based in surrounding rural areas alongside the small townships of Central Elgin, West Elgin, Dutton-Dunwich, Southwold, Aylmer, Bayham, and Malahide. In terms of overall resale units sold, it is fourth largest GLA region after London South, North, and East. While sales activity is still down from historical levels, it remains a more active market than London, with unit sales over the past 12 months only down 10% when compared to the trailing 5-year average.
During the third quarter, St. Thomas and Elgin County reported a median sale price of $579K, down 4.6% from a year prior. After inventory steadily grew in 2023 to end the year with over 5 months, resale supply tightened to start the new year but has spiked during the spring and summer markets. At 7.5 months of inventory, buyers in this market now have triple the homes to choose from when compared to the trailing 5-year average.
As expected from increased relative supply, homes in St. Thomas and Elgin County are taking a long time to sell, with a median listing period of 27 days, up 2 days from median selling times observed one year ago.
Community Overview
Woodstock-Ingersoll
The next largest region within Greater London is Woodstock-Ingersoll, more or less similar in population and unit sales to St. Thomas and Elgin County. Beyond the primary towns of Woodstock and Ingersoll, which are home to just over 50K people, the neighbouring communities of Zorra, East Zorra, Tavistock, and Blandford Blenheim form the remainder of the region. It is a unique smaller market, with direct access via the 401 to larger cities such as London to the west and the tri-cities and Brantford to the east.
Woodstock-Ingersoll recorded a median sale price of $637K in the third quarter, down 2% from the prior quarter and more or less flat from a year ago. When compared to its trailing 5-year average, the median price is up 10%, outperforming the Greater London Area as a whole.
At the start of 2022, inventory levels in Woodstock were critically low, with only about half a month of inventory. This supply-demand imbalance is why prices in Woodstock-Ingersoll were up 30% in 2021. In 2023, as seen across most regions in Ontario, Woodstock-Ingersoll saw inventory levels grow in the third and fourth quarters, ending the year with close to 5 months of available supply. Inventory fell 2 months to start the year but has steadily increased to 4.4 months during the third quarter. As experienced broadly across London and the province, properties are taking longer to sell, up 7 days from the spring market at a median listing period of 23 days.
Community Overview
Tillsonburg & Area
Just south of Woodstock-Ingersoll and the 401 highway are the towns of Tillsonburg, Norwich, and surrounding counties of Southwest Oxford and Norfolk. The largest town of this area, Tillsonburg, has a population of just under 20K and is less than an hour drive from London and Brantford. The town has experienced strong growth in recent years, with the 2021 census recording population growth of 18% since 2016, significantly outpacing the overall province (5%) and London (10%).
Tillsonburg & Area started the year with a median sale price of $594K, up to $610K in the second quarter and spiking to $666K in Q3-2024. In 2022, inventory increased more than ten-fold, ending the year at 8 months, the highest level for all regions within Greater London. As expected in conjunction with this increased supply, homes were also taking much longer to sell, leading all GLA regions with a median time to sell of 38 days. Through the third quarter, inventory sits at 5 months of supply, double the trailing 5-year average with homes still taking longer than anywhere in Greater London to sell at 34 median days.
A final note regarding Tillsonburg & Area is that prices are drastically more expensive in the surrounding rural communities when compared to the town of Tillsonburg, which can result in large swings in prices based on what type of properties sell during a specific time period. As always, speak with a realtor experienced in your preferred location to get more refined estimates on how a specific neighbourhood may be shifting.
Community Overview
Surrounding Middlesex County
Surrounding Middlesex County is comprised of multiple small townships that border the west, north, and east boundaries of the city of London. In terms of overall sales activity, the largest township is Middlesex Centre, which borders London to the west and north and includes the fast-growing communities of Komoka-Kilworth, Ilderton, and Arva. To the east of London is Thames Centre, which is centered by the town of Dorchester. Other townships comprising Surrounding Middlesex County include Lucan-Biddulph, directly north of London beyond Middlesex Centre, Adelaide-Metcalfe and North Middlesex to the north-west, and Southwest Middlesex.
Surrounding Middlesex County, while only 5% of current resale activity, remains the most expensive market in Greater London, ending the third quarter with a median sale price of $731K. New housing development is rapidly progressing in many townships within this region, with most projects focused on single-family detached subdivisions with premium price points. However, median prices are down 5% year-over-year, driven from the second-highest inventory levels across the London area. At year-end 2022, inventory stood at 6 months, declined to 3 months by the second quarter of 2023 before drastically increasing to finish the year at over 10 months of inventory. Through the third quarter of 2024, inventory sits at 7 months with median selling up to 26 days.
Community Overview
Strathroy-Caradoc
Rounding out our list with just over 300 resales over the last twelve months is the municipality of Strathroy-Caradoc. Similar to Tillsonburg, the municipality has a population of around 20K and has experienced double-digit growth since 2016. Strathroy is less than 45 minutes from Sarnia, the shores of Lake Huron and surrounding Lambton County, and downtown London. It is even a closer drive to the high-growth towns of Komoka-Kilworth and Ilderton in surrounding Middlesex County. Strathroy, like Komoka and Ilderton, are experiencing a lot of new housing development to accommodate its growing population.
Strathroy recorded a median sale price of $595K in the third quarter, down from the prior quarter and losing 8.5% year-over-year. When compared to the trailing 5-year average, Strathroy prices are more or less flat which has underperformed London proper. Strathroy has experienced drastic fluctuations in resale supply, ending 2022 with 5 months of inventory, falling to 2.7 months through the second quarter of 2023 before ending 2023 with over 6 months. Inventory fell the most of all London regions to start 2024 but has steadily grown to now feature over 8 months of supply, more than any other region in London. Despite the increased supply, homes are selling quicker than anywhere in Greater London at 20 median days on market.
Archived Reports
London & Area Market Updates
Second Quarter 2024 Market Report
Archived Reports
London & Area Market Updates
Third Quarter 2023 Market Report
Second Quarter 2023 Market Report
Summary
The Greater London Market report will be updated on a quarterly basis. Every market is different, but understanding available inventory levels alongside recent price and market trends can help prospective buyers and sellers make more informed decisions. You can subscribe to quarterly updates of the London Market Report report by completing the contact form below.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article. As you contemplate the next steps in your real estate journey, there are a variety of helpful online resources you can leverage, such as realtor.ca, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp, and historical sales data and market insights from leading real estate websites like Zolo, Royal LePage, HouseSigma, and Wahi.
