Windsor-Essex Market Report
2023 Third Quarter Update
An overview of historical transaction data in Windsor & Essex County
During the first quarter of 2023, Windsor & Essex County, like other real estate markets across the country, saw a significant decline in sales activity and average prices. Overall resale units sold were down 42% from the record peak in Q1-2022 while the median sale price was down 23.2%. After a strong spring market, the third quarter saw another pullback in activity and prices, with higher interest rates further eroding buyer affordability. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), through its various real estate boards and provincial associations, compiles transaction data for each of its major markets, with the CREA Stats Centre reporting sales data going as far back as 1980. While historical stats should never be the sole indicator of what’s to come, they are helpful to review and consider as part of the broader context. In this market report, we'll outline latest transaction highlights for each of the communities comprising Windsor and surrounding Essex County, as well as overall performance by property type.
Windsor & Essex County: Regional Overview
Windsor, the start of the Quebec City-Windsor population corridor, is the seventh largest city in Ontario and the 15th largest metropolitan area in Canada. Directly across the river from Windsor is the American city of Detroit, with the two cities forming the largest and busiest trans-border urban area in North America. Windsor-Detroit experiences significant cross-border travel and tourism, as well as commerce, with the area well known for being the automotive capital of North America. Directly south of Lake St. Clair and 30 minutes north of the banks of Lake Erie, Windsor locals are a short drive from miles of beautiful waterfront and surrounding nature. Despite close proximity to a major American city and a large economy of its own, homes in Windsor are more affordable than other cities in Southern Ontario, with an average price in the third quarter of $540K compared to the provincial average of $845K.
45 minutes south-east of Windsor lies the town of Leamington and Point Pelee National Park, the southernmost point in mainland Canada. From there, driving up the peninsula along the shores of Lake Erie you will find the picturesque towns of Kingsville and Amherstburg, along with some of the most fertile and tropical landscapes in our country. For anyone who has spent time in Windsor and surrounding Essex County, they will be familiar with greenhouses and fruit stands, breathtaking escarpment views along the lakefront, and a growing number of wineries. The area is experiencing significant growth in recent years, with prominent new investment into the region from Canadian cannabis producers, the broader agricultural sector, as well as residential home builders. To the north and running along Lake St. Clair, the growing sub-market of Lakeshore rounds out the region, with the combined Windsor-Essex area recording 6% growth in population between 2016 and 2021.
Windsor & Essex County: Total Market Overview
Across all communities included in Windsor & Essex County, the median sale price observed in the third quarter of 2023 was $500K, down 5% from the second quarter but up slightly from one year ago. A quick note on median versus average values. Median sale price, which reports the sale price of the middle-priced property in a group, is a more reliable metric than average sale price because it removes outlier transactions (i.e. properties that have sold for either a lot of money or have sold for next to nothing). Outlier transactions skew the average from what it really should be, which is the price of the average, or mid-priced home, in a particular community.
If the average price for a market is significantly higher than its median, it means that the market has a growing number of luxury properties being sold. Across the entire Windsor-Essex board, the average price in Q3-2023 was 9% higher than its median value. Despite homes in Windsor-Essex still being down over 20% from the record peak in Q1-2022, in the broader context, the region has outperformed the province and most markets in Southern Ontario over the past 5 years, outperforming other corridor cities like Brantford, Hamilton-Burlington, and the GTA. This can be widely attributed to the relative affordability of Windsor homes when compared to homes in these nearby markets. For the preceding 20 years, Windsor prices have more or less lagged behind the growth experienced in these markets, and alongside the Greater London Area, this corner of southwestern Ontario is playing some catch-up. Compared to its trailing 5-year average for median sale price, homes in Windsor-Essex ended the third quarter of 2023 up 19%. To compare Windsor’s performance against other major markets in the province, check out our article on Top Markets in Ontario here.
Part of what drove Windsor’s phenomenal price growth during the pandemic was its low inventory, or housing supply available for buyers. During the record peak for prices, Windsor-Essex had only 0.7 months of inventory, which meant that listed homes were selling in just under three weeks. Without new homes hitting the market, Windsor inventory would have disappeared in less than a month. When inventory levels are this low, prices have to rise on account of too many buyers bidding on too few properties. This leads to bidding wars and runaway prices, explaining part of why Windsor prices are double what they were 5 years ago. Over the trailing 5 years, Windsor-Essex has been a tight sellers’ market, with an average of only one and a half months of resale inventory.
Throughout 2022, multiple interest rate hikes resulted in a temporary cooling of the market, with Windsor-Essex ending the year with 3.5 months of available inventory, double the average supply recorded since 2017. During the first quarter of 2023, inventory levels fell back down to 2.1 months while median days on market (DOM) also fell from 17 days to 14 days. In the second quarter, greater sales activity resulted in even quicker selling times, falling back in line with the trailing 5-year average at 10 days. However, rate hikes in June and July removed more buyers from the market, resulting in an increase in inventory levels and longer selling times.
Due to its low population density relative to the rest of Southern Ontario, close to 90% of properties in Windsor-Essex are detached homes. Detached homes, as expected, are more expensive than the apartments and semi-detached segment, with median sale prices to end the second quarter of $517K and $403K respectively. Year-to-date, there is a lower supply of detached homes in Windsor-Essex which is resulting in faster selling times when compared to the apartment segment.
Community Overview
Windsor-Lasalle-Tecumseh
The city of Windsor is comprised of three main regions: Windsor proper, Lasalle, and Tecumseh. Windsor proper, which comprises the majority of neighbourhoods and its downtown core, has a population of 230K. Running south down the river is the community of Lasalle, with a population of just over 30K. The riverfront community is less than 20 minutes from downtown Windsor, with its own residential core alongside an abundance of green space, river tributaries, and golf courses. In the opposite direction is the town of Tecumseh, located adjacent to Windsor’s west end at the mouth of Lake St. Clair. These three sub-regions, most notably Windsor proper, each have multiple neighbourhoods within them, and in total account for two-thirds of resale activity in Windsor & Essex County. Given the wide-variety of neighbourhoods, it’s important to speak with a realtor knowledgeable in your preferred location and property type in order to get a better sense of what – and where – you may be able to afford.
At 2022 year-end and continuing through the third quarter of 2023, resale inventory levels in Windsor-Lasalle-Tecumseh are lower than anywhere else in Essex County, now with just over 3 months of supply. After declining in the first and second quarters, inventory levels have risen in recent months to sit over a month above the trailing 5-year average. Across all property types in Windsor proper, homes are selling in roughly 12 days, 2 days slower than activity in the second quarter and back in line with the trailing 5-year average. To end the third quarter of 2023, Windsor-Lasalle-Tecumseh reported a median sale price of $470K, falling 6% from the prior quarter and now sitting up 4% year-over-year.
Community Overview
Lakeshore & Area
The municipality of Lakeshore, while just over 10% of current resale activity, is the most expensive market in Windsor-Essex, ending the third quarter with a median sale price of $628K. With a population of just over 40K, the Lakeshore sub-market has seen its population grow at close to twice the pace of the Windsor-Essex region. Compared to a year ago, median prices are up 1.5%, with similar inventory levels around 4 months. Properties in Lakeshore are now taking 19 days to sell, up 2 days from the second quarter and taking 5 days longer than the regional average.
Community Overview
Amherstburg
During Q3-2023, Amherstburg reported a median sale price of $603K, making it the second-most expensive sub-market in Windsor-Essex. However, prices in the third quarter are down 3% year-over-year, driven by a sharp increase in supply that is over 2 months more than the regional average. As expected from this rise in inventory, properties in Amherstburg are now taking 5 days longer to sell, with a median listing period of 15 days.
Community Overview
Kingsville & Essex
Kingsville & Essex finished the third quarter with a median sale price of $591K, up 11% when compared to the same quarter one year ago. When compared to its trailing 5-year average, the median price is up 35%, with price growth concentrated in the Kingsville area.
During the record peak, inventory levels in Kingsville & Essex were much lower. Unlike other regions in Essex County, inventory was largely unchanged from the second quarter, stable at around 4 months and down from 6 months in Q3-2022. Homes in this area are now taking around 19 days to sell, 5 days slower than the prior quarter.
Community Overview:
Leamington
Luxury homes aside, the average home in Leamington is relatively affordable, with a median sale price for Q3-2023 of $452K. Compared to the final quarter of 2022, which recorded a median sale price of $392K, it is important to note that the small sample size of transactions in this sub-market can result in drastic price swings quarter to quarter. Prices are flat year-over-year but up 20% when compared to the trailing 5-year weighted average. After inventory levels steadily grew throughout 2022, the first half of 2023 saw inventory decline to 4.3 months. However, inventory has spiked to over 8 months in the third quarter, more than four times the trailing 5-year average for the area. As expected from this supply increase, homes in Leamington are taking longer to sell than anywhere else in Essex County, with a median listing period of 21 days.
Archived Reports
Windsor & Essex County Market Updates
Second-Quarter 2023 Market Report
Summary
The Windsor & Essex County report will be updated on a quarterly basis. Every market is different, but understanding available inventory levels alongside recent price and market trends can help prospective buyers and sellers make more informed decisions. A summary of all Windsor markets as of Q3-2023 is presented above and you can subscribe to quarterly updates of the Windsor Market Report report by completing the contact form below.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article. As you contemplate the next steps in your real estate journey, there are a variety of helpful online resources you can leverage, such as realtor.ca, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and historical sales data and market insights from leading real estate websites like Zolo, Royal LePage, HouseSigma, and Wahi.
